UK grain prices: futures, ex-farm and why quotes differ

Every UK grain quote is built the same way: a futures price everyone can see, plus or minus a local adjustment almost nobody talks about. Understand those two parts and most of the mystery goes — including why your merchant's Tuesday price doesn't match the one your neighbour was quoted the same morning.

This is a guide to the mechanics, not a forecast. Nobody who actually knows where wheat is going next month is writing articles about it.

The reference: London feed wheat futures

UK feed wheat futures trade on the ICE exchange in London, in contracts for set delivery months. That futures price is the reference point for the whole UK market — when it moves, every ex-farm quote in the country moves with it within the hour.

Futures reflect the big picture: world wheat supply, the size of the UK and European crops, currency, and what maize and Black Sea wheat are doing. None of it is local, and none of it cares about your farm. Which is where basis comes in.

Basis: the bit that's about you

Your ex-farm price is the futures price plus or minus basis — the local adjustment. Three things drive it:

• Haulage to the consumer. Quotes are ex-farm, with the buyer paying haulage, so a farm near a big feed mill or a port gets a better basis than one three hours from the nearest home for wheat.
• Local supply and demand. A region heavy with wheat and light on livestock has grain competing to leave; the reverse pulls prices up. Basis can differ by several pounds a tonne between regions on the same day.
• Month of movement. Later months usually pay more — the carry that rewards storage — so a November price and a harvest-movement price are different numbers off the same futures screen.

So when the merchant's Tuesday price differs from the neighbour's, it's rarely anyone being done. Different region, different movement month, different spec, sometimes just a different buyer's book that morning. Compare like with like — same month, same spec, same day — before drawing conclusions.

Premiums: milling and malting

Feed price is the floor. Grain that meets a quality spec earns a premium over it:

Grain	Typical premium over feed	Depends on
Milling wheat (Group 1)	Commonly £20–£60/t	Protein, Hagberg, specific weight — see milling wheat specs
Malting barley	Similar magnitude	Grain nitrogen, germination — see malting barley specs

Both premiums swing widely by season — tight milling years have paid well above that range, plentiful ones well below it. The catch is that a premium is only earned if every spec is met at intake; miss the protein by 0.3% and the load may be paid as feed, with the growing costs of a milling crop already spent. That maths belongs in the cropping decision, not just the selling one.

Where to check prices, and how often

• AHDB publishes weekly ex-farm prices from merchant surveys at ahdb.org.uk — the closest thing to an honest benchmark for what farms are actually being paid.
• Merchant apps and daily emails give you live-ish bids for your postcode, which is what you'd actually trade at.
• Futures quotes (widely republished in the farming press) tell you which way the tide is moving before the local quotes update.

How often to look? For most farms, a weekly habit plus a glance when something big happens is plenty. Checking hourly doesn't improve your average — it mostly generates regret in both directions. What does improve your average is knowing your own position cold: tonnes in the shed by crop and spec, tonnes already committed, and what's left to sell. That's a records question as much as a market one — the same discipline as knowing your daily harvest numbers.

Historical context, not a prediction

For scale: UK feed wheat ex-farm has mostly traded roughly £150–£250/t across recent seasons, with excursions outside that range in unusual years. That's a rear-view mirror, not a forecast — the next season is entirely capable of sitting outside it.

The practical use of history is calibration. If you know the recent range, you can recognise when a quote is near the top or bottom of it and act accordingly — sell some into strength, avoid panic-selling weakness — without needing to predict anything. A forward sale or a pool is how you act on that view; the selling routes guide covers who to act with.

One concrete example of why the mechanics matter: on a 350t wheat shed, a £10/t difference — from basis, movement month, or a premium missed on spec — is £3,500. That's the size of prize hiding in understanding your quote, and it's available every season regardless of where the market goes.

Frequently Asked Questions

What sets the price of wheat in the UK?

UK feed wheat futures on the ICE exchange in London set the reference, driven by world supply and demand, crop sizes and currency. Your actual ex-farm quote is that futures price adjusted for basis: haulage distance to the consumer, local supply and demand, and the month of movement.

Why is my grain price different from my neighbour's?

Usually because something in the quote differs: region, movement month, spec, or simply the day it was given. Basis varies by several pounds a tonne between areas, and later movement months typically pay more than harvest movement. Compare quotes on the same basis before assuming anyone's being short-changed.

How much more is milling wheat worth than feed wheat?

The milling premium for Group 1 breadmaking wheat has commonly run £20–£60/t over feed, but it moves a long way season to season. It's only paid if the load meets every spec — protein, Hagberg and specific weight — at the buyer's intake, so budget on hitting spec, not just growing the variety.

Where can I check UK grain prices?

AHDB publishes weekly ex-farm prices from merchant surveys, which show what farms are actually achieving. Merchant apps and daily price emails give tradeable bids for your area, and futures quotes show the market's direction. A weekly look is enough for most farms.

Will grain prices go up?

Nobody reliably knows, and anyone certain either way is guessing. Recent seasons have mostly traded in a wide range — roughly £150–£250/t for feed wheat ex-farm — and the useful skill isn't prediction but position: knowing your tonnes, your commitments and your costs so you can act when the market offers a price that works for your business.